Natural Gas Pros

Klaus H Hemsath asked:


Al Gore, Rick Wagoner, Tom Friedman, our President Elect, Barack Obama, and many more celebrities are all heavily favoring and supporting a wholesale changeover from fossil fuel driven cars to electrically powered automobiles.

Their faith is based on the Lithium Ion battery. These batteries are very expensive, are heavy, must be replaced after several years, and require hours for recharging. Lithium is not widely available in the US and must be imported.

Electric cars perform admirably. They do not emit greenhouse gases directly, can be designed to accelerate well, and are very quiet. Electric cars are considered by many as the secret weapon that will reduce our dependence on imported petroleum and will lessen our payments to oil producing countries.

In a good year, US citizens will buy roughly 15 million cars to replenish and grow the US inventory of nearly 250 million used cars. It may take anywhere from twelve to fifteen years to replace most of this inventory with new models. The Volt, the first electric car produced by General Motors, will likely be leased in small numbers initially to stay on top of performance and warranty issues. Optimistically, we can assume that GM and other car companies will sell more than 2.5 million electric cars during the next ten years. Replacing 250 million cars will take a few decades longer.

At the same time the US is looking at a population growth of another 100 million residents during the next fifty years. Under the most optimistic assumptions we can expect to eventually see 150 million electric cars and 150 million liquid fuel powered cars in use by 2050.

Passenger cars are responsible for only 45% of present liquid fuel consumption. Under the most favorable conditions and assumptions, electric cars may be able to save 25% of petroleum imports eventually. Liquid fuel consumption for other uses will certainly increase during this time. Optimistically, we may expect that electric cars can cut liquid fuel consumption by 20% in 2050.

This figure does not bode well for curing the oil import dependency of the US. It certainly will not reduce dollar exports. It is certain that petroleum prices will rise substantially in future years. Additionally, we will have to pay for imported raw materials for batteries from abroad.

All these figures lead to one overpowering conclusion; electric cars will never be able to free us from the yoke of petroleum imports or reduce our balance of payments significantly!

There a few technical complications, too. Electric cars must be recharged regularly with electric energy. Electric energy is produced presently with fossil and nuclear fuels. Solar power is not suited too well because most electric cars must be recharged during the night hours when the Sun is not shining. For the next ten to fifteen years only a limited number of nuclear plants can be installed. Wind power is an intermittent energy, which cannot yet be stored in quantities. Fossil fuel burning has to provide virtually all of the electric energy for recharging the new fleet of electric cars for years to come. Combining efficiencies of coal fired power plants, of electricity transmission, and of battery chargers results in an overall energy efficiency that is not better than the energy efficiency of modern combustion engine inventory. Therefore, electric cars will not lower greenhouse gas emissions! Only very efficient combustion engines can accomplish this feat!

If electric cars cannot save us from a coming energy crisis, what other choices do we have? The answer is sobering. Without the coming of a Deus ex Machina, there seems to be only one and only one rational solution. We must learn how to make renewable fuels from large-scale production of renewable biomass.

The Earth cannot support the use of large amounts of fossil fuels any longer. We will not be able to stop the use of petroleum in the near future. We must outlaw the use of fossil fuels soon to save the Earth from overheating.

Only two other energy sources exist, which can provide the large amounts of energy that modern economies depend on. Sunlight is inexhaustible and available in quantities we will never be able to consume. Several conversion technologies are available for converting sunlight into the two energy forms that our economies depend on; electricity and liquid transportation fuels.

The other large energy source is nuclear fuel. It is likely that nuclear fuels will last for more than one century. Other energy sources such as hydro power, marine power, and geothermal power are not available everywhere and are limited in capacity.

We are left with one conclusion. For the next century or two, we will have to depend heavily on converting sunshine into electricity and into liquid transportation fuels. Energy in the form of sunshine is not very concentrated. Fortunately, biomass has the unusual ability to use sunlight and create energy rich carbohydrates and a few hydrocarbons. More amazingly yet; biomass energy can be stored.

There are a few technical problems we must solve before biomass can become the savior technology. We must grow very large amounts of biomass, we must learn to convert carbohydrates into hydrocarbons, and we must agree to reserve arable lands for food production only. All remaining obstacles can be overcome with existing technologies. It will take about one long decade to develop workable and economically attractive solutions. To be successful we must support exploratory research on a large scale and we must organize and fund an independent Energy Supply Development Agency.

The dismal interference of US Congress in energy matters must be changed. Instead of demanding the ineffective manufacturing of electric cars and regulating fuel consumption of passenger cars, US Congress must change to a new, practicable, and effective energy policy. US Congress and the new administration must demand increased thermal efficiencies from all newly manufactured internal combustion engines and must initiate the fast track development of liquid fuels production from renewable biomass.

Daniel Yergin asked:


Renewable electric power is beginning to soar. The current surge of activity, which has been accelerating over the last few years, is driven by several factors: high fuel prices; ongoing improvements in renewable power technologies; and increasing political support, which grows out of concern about energy security and climate change.

Although renewable power is still generally more expensive than electricity generated from fossil fuels, the cost of renewables has declined significantly. Moreover, energy investment decisions are increasingly made not solely on an economic basis, but with environmental and sociopolitical considerations factored in as well.

It’s taken a long time to get here. Three decades and $30 billion of research funded by the United States and other industrial countries have gone into renewables, along with billions more from the private sector. The effort has been marked by booms-and-busts, ups-and-downs in research funding, disappointment and long dry periods. But after languishing for many years on the fringe, renewable power is now headed into the mainstream.

Renewable power technologies generate electricity using natural regenerating resources such as sunlight, wind and waves. Traditional renewable power technologies include hydro, geothermal and biomass. Familiar to most people, hydro power involves the use of dams and running water to drive electric turbines.

Geothermal systems capture steam and hot water in geologic reservoirs to generate electricity. Biomass plants burn forest products and agricultural residues to produce steam to accomplish the same. These traditional renewable power technologies account for more than 90 percent of global renewable power capacity and are growing at a modest pace.

The menu is being widened with more exotic technologies. Concentrated solar power plants use mirrors to focus sunlight and boil a fluid to produce steam to drive a turbine. Enhanced geothermal systems produce electricity with steam made from water that is injected into the earth and heated by contact with hot rocks. Biomass gasification plants turn biomass into a gas that can be used in a combined-cycle generator. These technologies have great potential, but are still developmental.

Wind turbines and solar photovoltaic (PV) cells occupy the middle ground between the traditional renewable power sources of today and the promising technologies of tomorrow. Although both wind and solar PV have been commercially available for decades, these technologies have matured over the last thirty years due to ongoing research and accumulated know-how. They are now experiencing rapid market growth.

The big winner so far is wind. Global wind power capacity has tripled since 2000 and reached nearly 75 gigawatts (GW) by the end of 2006. This is still small-less than two percent of total world capacity-but it is enough to meet the annual electric needs of nearly 20 million U.S. households.

Germany, the United States, Spain, India and Denmark have the largest installed wind base, but in 2006, North America saw the fastest growth. In the U.S., nearly 3 GW of new wind turbines were installed last year, with overall wind capacity breaking 10 GW along the way. U.S. wind growth was fueled by a federal tax credits and state renewable portfolio standard programs, which require utilities to purchase a certain percentage of their power from renewable sources.

At the same time, continuing technological advances are being made in the design and operations of windmills.

Asia is emerging as a center of growth for both wind energy use and wind turbine manufacturing capacity. Over 3 GW of new capacity was installed in Asia in 2006, the bulk in China and India. This came as a result of policies supporting renewables, such as China’s new Renewable Energy Law, which requires 5 percent of China’s electric capacity to be renewables-based by 2010. India is the world’s fourth-largest wind power market, thanks to sustained government support for the sector.

Solar PV is hot, too. It works by converting sunlight directly into electricity using semiconducting materials such as polysilicon. Global solar PV installations have grown by an average annual rate of 35 percent over the last five years. Germany, Japan and the U.S. are the leaders in solar PV use, combining to account for 85 percent of the global installed base of more than 6 GW. PV installations in the U.S. grew by over 20 percent last year due to the expansion of federal and state support.

Solar PV is also on the rise in Asia, particularly in China, which is positioned to emerge as one of the world’s largest solar PV manufacturers and consumers over the next several years.

The surge in wind and solar PV over the last several years is creating its own obstacles. The wind industry is currently struggling with turbine component shortages. These shortages have driven up the installed cost of wind turbines from as low as $1,100 per kilowatt a few years ago to $1,500 or higher today-if you can find them.

Polysilicon demand from PV manufacturers is now greater than demand from the semiconductor business, and there is simply not enough silicon production capacity today to meet these twin sources of demand.

This has created a shortage and driven up prices. Polysilicon prices exceeded $100 per kilogram in 2006, up from $35 per kilogram a few years ago. These shortages are expected to persist until 2008, when new wind turbine component and silicon manufacturing capacity comes on line. In the meantime, technologists are seeking to find ingenious ways to innovate around these shortages.

The rapid growth in renewable power has been accompanied by an associated increase in investment. According to New Energy Finance, investment in clean energy reached $70 billion in 2006, up from $50 billion in 2005. Venture capitalists are now focusing on this sector as well. According to the Cleantech Venture Network, the North American venture capital community invested $758 million in wind and solar startups in 2006, a threefold increase from 2005.

Policy uncertainty and fossil fuel prices are among the biggest threats to renewable power in the short and medium terms. Renewable power options have yet to achieve cost parity with fossil fuel sources, although some wind projects are competitive today in favorable sites with abundant wind resources and tax incentives.

Solar PV still has a way to go, with current costs of PV-generated power approximately five times those of electricity from a natural gas plant. As a result, wind and solar must rely upon robust and stable government supports to fuel industry growth. But renewable power policies can be just as intermittent as the wind and sun themselves.

Although recent events have spurred strong support for incentives and renewable power targets, declining fossil fuel prices could make such policies less tenable. Especially important is what happens to natural gas prices and whether and when a price is put on carbon emissions from fossil fuel-fired power plants.

When considering the future prospects for renewables, perspective is important. Despite their recent rapid growth, wind and solar together account for just two percent of global power generation capacity. Even with a continuation of the strong growth seen in recent years, wind and solar are likely to account for less than five percent of global capacity a decade from now.

Moreover, there are questions as to how renewables will interface with existing technologies and infrastructure.

But by the middle of the next decade, as wind and solar PV continue to grow-and as concentrated solar power, advanced biomass and geothermal technologies become increasingly competitive-renewables can begin to make a more significant impact in global power markets. Indeed, it is likely that renewable power will continue to grow at a rapid rate, given the prospect for continued technology improvements and the likelihood that climate change and energy security will remain important concerns.